The answer to Iraq's problems?

  Safa A. Hussein

In recent months, many American politicians and officials have criticized the Iraqi government for acting too slowly--for not exploiting the limited time available for the political reforms and national reconciliation needed to turn recent tactical security gains into strategic gains. Indeed, the reform and reconciliation process is slow, but it is unfair to blame the government only. The real cause of the government's ineffectiveness is the current political system, which is fatally flawed.

The political process that the Coalition Provisional Authority administered and then the United Nations oversaw through elections created the conditions for Iraqis to identify with their sect/ethnicity rather than with the Iraqi nation through their respective provinces. The electoral process was based on closed national lists by means of which Iraqis naturally rallied to their sectarian/ethnic grouping. This system created a first generation of Iraqi politicians who played the sectarian/ethnic game to rally constituents. Politics became a destabilizing scramble for sectarian/ethnic power at the national level.

When the violence in Iraq was accelerating in 2005, it was not difficult to see that a major cause was the resistance of the Arab Sunnis to their loss of power and what they perceive as marginalization in the new political system. The neighboring countries and the US exerted pressure on the Iraqi Shi'ite government to fix the situation by making concessions on behalf of Sunnis. The very nature of this process hardens the sectarian divisions that are at the heart of the dysfunction in the Iraqi state. Again, when Prime Minister Nour al-Maliki was forming his government in 2006, the international community exerted heavy pressure to form the so-called government of national unity. It did not take long to realize that this is a crippled government that has further weakened the non-functioning political structure. By mid-2007 it was clear that the political process was in deadlock. Top-down politics is simply not working.

But mid-2007 also witnessed the emergence of a strategic opportunity that was created by another process: the shift of the Sunni community against al-Qaeda in Iraq. This manifested itself in different forms; the most famous is the so-called "tribal awakening movement"--a slogan for the tribal uprisings against AQI. The willingness of many Iraqi insurgent groups to dialogue with the Iraqi government and the cooperation of many of them with that government and with American forces against AQI is an additional major manifestation of this shift.

Another significant development that created a strategic opportunity was the freezing of Mahdi Army military activities by its leader Moqtada al-Sadr. The Mahdi Army plays two roles: First, it protects the Shi'ite community against Sunni insurgent attacks (in the process fueling the cycle of sectarian violence). Second, al-Sadr followers compete, some times violently, with their Shi'ite rivals, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. The freezing of al-Sadr's militia has quieted both struggles.

These opportunities have permitted reconciliation at the local level. Tens of tribal and notable "support councils" were established in volatile areas such as Baghdad, north and south of the capital (in what was previously known as the triangle of death), Diala, Salah al-Din, al-Anbar and recently Mosul. A typical support council is a civic organization established by influential locals, composed of all constituents of the area who are usually tribal leaders and other notables. The Iraqi government sponsors and supports these councils, which are given an important advisory role and in a few exceptional situations a security role. These councils play a valuable role in social and reconciliation activities, specifically in areas that have suffered sectarian violence. In many instances they are part of the tribal awakening movement. Many of these councils quickly become gardens where local leaders grow.

If these local reconciliation initiatives expand into national reconciliation and political reform projects and the local leaders turn into Iraq's second generation of national political leaders, then we may witness a major evolution in Iraqi politics in the form of some sort of a bottom-up political process. This may be the answer to Iraq's problems. It will encourage Iraqis to participate in politics through provincial identification, thus allowing them to cross ethnic and sectarian lines and facilitating national unity. Yet it may also bring new challenges, insofar as the speed and final outcome of this evolution are affected by the national election law, the provincial elections and the attitude of the existing political parties.

The previous national election law established voting on closed lists. This arrangement suited parties that use religion and ethnicity to collect votes throughout Iraq. By its nature it creates sectarian and ethnic leaders who become part of the political problem. If this law is not changed, there will be little chance for local leaders to become national politicians. There are calls for changing this election system and legislating a new law, but will the major parties in parliament allow this?

The timing of the next provincial elections is another issue. The major political blocs in parliament control the provincial councils and are not eager to set up elections that will give a chance to newcomers.

Existing Sunni political parties have been critical of the new local leaders. They see them as a threat to their position as sole representatives of the Sunnis and as competition for neighboring countries' support. Recent statements by senior Sunni politicians suggest that they want to contain these new local leaders. Thus the possibility of a deeper split that cripples the political process still exists.- Published 7/2/2008 © bitterlemons-international.org

Safa A. Hussein is a former deputy member of the dissolved Iraqi Governing Council. He served as a brigadier general in the Iraqi Air Force. Currently he works in the Iraqi National Security Council.