We don't know what's going to happen

an interview with  Mark Bernstein

BI: The Red-Dead project seeks to transport water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea. It uses the drop in elevation to generate electricity and desalinate large quantities of water for Jordan, Israel and Palestine, and refills the dangerously depleted Dead Sea with the brine left over after desalination. Are you aware of similar projects elsewhere in the world?

Bernstein: There really isn't anything similar as far as I know. There are of course large scale dams and pipelines, but I don't believe that there's anything like this anywhere else.

BI: The Palestinian Authority has signed on to a World Bank-financed feasibility study for the Red-Dead project. In your opinion, what's in it for the Palestinians?

Bernstein: The health of the Dead Sea is important to them because in final status they have access to that resource. They will be able to utilize the Dead Sea too. Also, if the project puts less strain on alternative regional sources, it could make more water available to them.

BI: What are the primary potential difficulties of the Red-Dead project?

Bernstein: First, I don't think we really know the impact that Red Sea water is going to have on the Dead Sea area ecosystem, given that it is a different type of water. We don't really know what's going to happen. Second, it's unclear how long you can go without having to stop the project. Once you fill up the Dead Sea, what do you do next? Do you stop providing fresh water and electricity? Many critical issues about the project have not been addressed publicly.

There are also a lot of potential positives in this project. You can use gravity to produce potable water that is needed in the region. Perhaps this can be done with less reliance on fossil fuel.

BI: Would you suggest an alternative?

Bernstein: We simply have not yet addressed regional water needs and whether this is the best way to serve them. You have to put this into context. We know there are lots of different reasons why the Dead Sea is drying up. Everyone blames everyone, and it's everyone's fault. There is no single explanation. We haven't examined well enough the question of finding an alternative for refilling it without hurting the economy and the ecology.

For example, the amount of energy it takes Israel to move water from the Sea of Galilee to southern Israel is considerable. What if we said, let's desalinate Mediterranean Sea water in the Israeli south, use energy for that, and let the Sea of Galilee water flow into the Dead Sea as it used to do?

BI: Are you satisfied that the World Bank's feasibility study will answer all of these questions?

Bernstein: Red-Dead is attractive and big; engineers like the idea of building it. But it may not be the best option. The feasibility study will not tell us if this is the best solution, only if it's a possible solution. Nobody has come forward to look at all the options. The last time any regional water analysis was done was by the National Academy of Sciences in the US about 15 years ago, but they didn't really get around to presenting policy options.

The basic issue I have is that this shouldn't be taken out of the context of the whole system. That's what usually happens with a project like this. We can't afford that. To drain capital away for this project is to take capital from something else. Is this the best use of the money?

BI: You recently completed a study of Palestine's water needs. Does Red-Dead fit in?

Bernstein: According to our study the West Bank and Gaza could manage without any desalination for the next 20 years if you plan the system right. So could Israel and Jordan. It takes different thinking: more efficient use of water, recycling of waste water for agriculture, stopping water leakage, etc. It's a lot cheaper to reduce wastage than to desalinate.- Published 24/6/2005 (c) bitterlemons-international.org

Mark Bernstein is a senior policy analyst at the Rand Corporation, where he works on environmental, water and energy policy issues in the US and globally. He recently authored a chapter on water use in the West Bank and Gaza for a Rand study on building a Palestinian state.