Walking a thin line

  Rana Sabbagh-Gargour

King Abdullah is loosing patience with Israel. Israel's accelerated anti-peace policies and unilateral actions in occupied Jerusalem are embarrassing him at home and threatening Jordan's national security and stability 15 years after the two countries signed their peace treaty. The outpouring of emotion at that signing ceremony between Yitzhak Rabin and King Hussein has well and truly been replaced with feelings of disappointment as bilateral ties hit rock bottom.

Like most Jordanians, Abdullah feels Israel has taken Jordan for a ride without consideration of its strategic needs or the sensitivities of its population. It is important to remember that half of Jordan's population is made up of Palestinian refugees who fled the 1948 war that led to Israel's creation and insist on exercising their rights to return and compensation.

The peace treaty was supposed to end the state of belligerency that existed between the two neighboring states and usher in an era of comprehensive Middle East peace. This was meant to have culminated in the creation of an independent, sovereign and territorially contiguous Palestinian state on the 1967 border with mutually agreed territorial swaps equal in size and value. Instead, successive Israeli governments have expanded settlement activity in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem without addressing the Palestinian issue. Comprehensive peace remains an elusive dream.

Abdullah, who became king after the death of his father in 1999, is now absorbing one blow after another from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The personal chemistry that allowed Hussein and Rabin to pursue a vision for comprehensive peace with courage and clarity simply does not exist between Abdullah and Netanyahu.

Israel is resisting a US-led, Arab-backed comprehensive peace plan, at the heart of which is the two-state solution, a strategic goal for Jordan. Despite the treaty that recognizes Jordan's "special role" over holy Muslim and Christian sites in Jerusalem, Israel is also pursuing aggressive unilateral actions in the divided city, to alter its Arab identity. It is excavating in and under al-Haram al-Sharif affecting the integrity of the Muslim site, impeding the work of Jordan's Awqaf teams seeking access to the site and continuing to demolish homes of the city's Palestinian residents.

These deteriorating conditions across the river are reviving the notion of Jordan as an alternative homeland for Palestinians, a long-standing right-wing Israeli dream that official Jordan had hoped was buried with the signing of the treaty. In parallel, Netanyahu is pushing for "economic peace" with the Palestinian in whatever is left of the West Bank along with greater self-rule. This is a scenario that could eventually push Jordan to enter into a confederation with that limited territory, which would destabilize Jordan's delicate demographic balance.

Regional instability, meanwhile, has turned the peace treaty into a political liability, inhibiting the government's margin of maneuver and preventing the normalization of ties between the peoples as well as governments. Today, a "cold political war" is being waged between Jordan and Israel. Their respective embassies in Amman and Tel Aviv maintain a minimum of bilateral cooperation in the areas of trade, health and water. Stronger cooperation between their security agencies helps maintain a quiet border.

Apart from rehabilitating Jordan's political ties with America, Europe and Gulf Arab states--which ruptured because Amman refused to join the military alliance that ended Iraq's occupation of Kuwait in 1991--and restoring badly-needed financial assistance, the peace treaty has not impacted the lives of ordinary Jordanians. The much-touted economic dividends that King Hussein promised his people did not materialize, except for a few joint projects here and there.

The opponents of the peace treaty thus feel their skepticism has been vindicated. The government now finds it more difficult to rein in opponents who have gone wild both in the street, the media and inside professional unions. For now, the king's strategic and political options also remain limited. Other than re-calling his ambassador in Tel Aviv for "prolonged consultation", he cannot meet popular demands to freeze the treaty and expel the Israeli envoy. The country has limited natural resources and remains heavily dependent on the treaty to nurture the political, economic and military strategic alliance with the US that Abdullah has deepened.

Jordan can neither change its strategic commitment to peace, nor count on a unified Arab and Palestinian position. Abdullah can only walk a thin line, stepping up his criticism of Netanyahu while managing public opinion, instilling gradual political reform to widen popular participation and praying that US President Barack Obama and the international community will convince Netanyahu to embrace a bigger picture.- Published 29/10/2009 © bitterlemons-international.org.

Rana Sabbagh-Gargour, an independent journalist, is former editor of the Jordan Times.