The core of the problem

  Akram Baker

The issue of whether the Israeli-Syrian or the Israeli-Palestinian track of peace negotiations should take precedence is a classic case of asking whether we should put the cart before the horse. The mere fact that I (along with three others) am writing on this subject is an indicator that the Middle East intelligentsia has yet to swallow the bitter pill of reality. With all due respect, Syria--in addition to Lebanon, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan--is thoroughly irrelevant compared to ending the Israeli occupation of Palestine.

The vast majority of players in this drama are weak, desperate and afraid. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is reeling from one crisis to another on the economic, social and security fronts. His cities are still flooded with Iraqis, his country's influence in Lebanon is at an all-time low, food and housing prices in Damascus continue to soar and there are growing rumblings in the streets and in the military about his leadership. So he throws the bone of declaring himself willing to negotiate with the new Israeli government if it means returning the Golan Heights to his country. Really?

The proverbial bone is happily caught by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, desperate to show that he is more than a bad habit that Israel can't shake. It would also allow him to continue his true calling by building ever more settlements in the occupied territories thereby killing the two state solution once and for all (we are already very, very close thanks to Labor, Likud and Kadima). However, his cabinet of right-wing extremists is clearly determined to scuttle his bobbing and weaving by calling Bibi's bluff. Israeli FM Avigdor Lieberman, a man whose views are so repugnant that if he were an EU minister, Israel would be the first country to boycott him, is genuinely clear about his intentions. No to returning the Golan, no to Palestinian statehood (the man himself lives in a settlement on the West Bank) and no to anything other than a purely Jewish state. Bibi knows that this kind of public stance is not good for business, but he wants to stay in the PM's residence more than anything else, so he is bound to offer platitudes while consistently creating contrary facts on the ground.

As for the hapless Palestinians, they seem to be in a race to the bottom. Encumbered by an utterly useless Palestinian Authority and a just as useless Hamas movement, the Palestinian people have been devastated to a point previously unknown in their history save in 1948. Their ability to govern anything more than municipal services in Ramallah is clearly in doubt with the West Bank and Gaza completely cut off both from each other and from the outside world. The decimation of leadership is so critical that their great hope is a guy sitting in an Israel prison, Marwan Barghouthi. The international community, Israel and, to a lesser extent, the Arab states have all played a role in pushing Palestinian society to the brink of collapse. "Peace efforts" have failed miserably since 1994, affording them no respite from occupation. Armed resistance has brought them nothing but death and destruction from a merciless Israeli military since 2001. Even under the best of circumstances, the capabilities of the Palestinians to make real movement today toward anything resembling progress are sadly lacking.

The one hope is a fresh start from US President Barack Obama. If he is willing to see that the key to regional--and to some extent global--peace lies in the creation of a healthy, viable, and independent Palestinian state, then there is a good chance that the light at the end of the tunnel is not a lit fuse but a beacon. If the US has the political will clearly to lay out its plan, starting with concrete steps to end the Israeli occupation and empower Palestinian democratic institutions (and not just elections), the region has a chance to survive. Obama must demand an end to Israel settlements, including Jewish-only roads and the lifting of the suffocating blockade of Palestinian cities and Gaza or immediately withhold capital, both financial and political, from Israel. He must demand that the Palestinians initially allow themselves to be governed by some sort of Palestinian/international body that will give them the breathing space to build transparent and durable institutions. The US, along with the EU and NATO would guarantee the security of both sides from each other.

The Syrian question revolving around the Israeli occupation and annexation of the Golan Heights is secondary in every way. Bilateral peace agreements, as we have seen with Egypt and Jordan, did not bring an end to the Arab-Israel conflict. The so-called Syrian track would only be yet another diversion and an excuse for doing nothing. Tracks without a train are nothing but strips of metal. The road to Damascus begins in Jerusalem and Obama and the international community must get the engine started and head it in the right direction. A perfect place to make that announcement would be in Cairo during his upcoming speech to the Islamic world. I for one am holding my breath.- Published 14/5/2009 © bitterlemons-international.org

Akram Baker is an independent Palestinian political analyst. He is co-president of the Arab Western Summit of Skills, a platform for Arab professionals dedicated to reform and development in the Arab and Islamic worlds.